Detalls de la publicació.

Article

Any:2016
Autor(s):M. Becker, M. Karpytchev, M. Marcos, S. Jevrejeva, S. Lennartz-Sassinek
Títol:Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes?
Revista:GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN:0094-8276
JCR Impact Factor:4.253
Volum:43
Pàgines:5176-5184
D.O.I.:10.1002/2016GL068971
Web:https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84971010969&doi=10.1002%2f2016GL068971&partnerID=40&md5=67cff96c973c25777cf5723e7a171a73
Resum:The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long-term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

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