Publication details.


Author(s):K.G. Hamon, C. M. Kreiss, J. K. Pinnegar, H. Bartelings, J. Batsleer, I. A. Catalán, D. Damalas, J-J. Poos, S. Rybicki, S. F. Sailley, V. Sgardeli, M. A. Peck
Title:Future Socio-political Scenarios for Aquatic Resources in Europe: An Operationalized Framework for Marine Fisheries Projections
Journal:Frontiers in Marine Science
Issue No.:578516
Abstract:Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and widespread direct consequences
for the European marine ecosystems and subsequently for the European fishery
sector. Additionally, many socio-economic and political factors linked to climate change
scenarios will impact the future development of fishing industries. Robust projection
modeling of bioeconomic consequences of climate change on the European fishing
sector must identify all these factors and their potential future interaction. In this
study, four socio-political scenarios developed in the EU project CERES (Climate
change and European aquatic RESources) were operationalized and used in model
projections of marine wild capture fisheries. Four CERES scenarios (“World Markets,”
“National Enterprise,” “Global Sustainability” and “Local Stewardship") were based
on the IPCC framework of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). For each of
these scenarios, a set of quantitative outputs was generated to allow projections
of bio-economic impacts to mid-century (2050) on wild-capture fisheries operating
in different European regions. Specifically, projections accounted for future changes
in fisheries management targets, access regulations, international agreements, fish
and fuel prices, technological developments and marine spatial planning. This study
thoroughly describes the elements of these four fisheries scenarios and demonstrates
an example of the “regionalization” of these scenarios by summarizing how they
were applied to the North Sea flatfish fishery. Bioeconomic projections highlight the
importance of future developments in fuel and fish price development to the viability
of that and other fisheries. Adapting these scenarios for use in other models and
regions outside the 10 European fisheries examined in CERES would be highly beneficial
by allowing direct comparison of the bioeconomic risks and opportunities posed by
climate change.

Related staff

  • Ignacio A. Catalán Alemany
  • Related departments

  • Marine Ecology
  • Related projects

  • CERES CTA 057