Publication details.


Author(s):V. Moltó, M. Palmer, O. Ospina-Álvarez, S. Pérez-Mayol, A. Besbes Benseddik, M. Gatt, B. Morales-Nin, F. Alemany, I.A. Catalán
Title:Projected effects of ocean warming on an iconic pelagic fish and its fishery
Journal:Scientific Reports
Abstract:Increasing sea temperature is a driver of change for many fish traits, particularly for fast-growing
epipelagic species with short life spans. With warming, altered spawning phenology and faster
growth may produce substantially larger body sizes of the new cohort, affecting fishery productivity.
We present an individual-based model (IBM) that predicts the distribution of fish length at catch
under observed and projected thermal scenarios, accounting for mortality, temperature-dependent
spawning phenology, temperature- and photoperiod- dependent growth. This IBM was demonstrated
with Coryphaena hippurus (common dolphinfish), a circumglobally-distributed and highly thermophilic
species sustaining commercial and recreational fisheries where it is present. The model projected a
13.2% increase in the average length at catch under marine heatwave conditions compared to the
current thermal regime (1995–2005 average). Projections under RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 by the end
of the century led to 5.1% and 12.8% increase in average length, respectively. Furthermore, these
thermal scenarios affected spawning phenology differently, producing higher variance in body size
under RCP 8.5 scenario with respect to marine heatwave conditions. This study highlights how the
environmental effects of climate change can alter the distribution of species length at catch.

Related staff

  • Beatriz Morales Nin
  • Ignacio A. Catalán Alemany
  • Miguel Palmer Vidal
  • Sílvia Pérez Mayol
  • Andrés Alonso Ospina Alvarez
  • Related departments

  • Marine Ecology
  • Related projects

  • CERES CTA 057
  • Co-Trip CTA 058
  • Related research groups

  • Marine Ecosystems Dynamics