Publication details.

Paper

Year:2022
Author(s):P. Colom, M. Ninyerola, X. Pons, A. Traveset, C. Stefanescu
Title:Phenological sensitivity and seasonal variability explain climate-driven trends in Mediterranean butterflies
Journal:PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
ISSN:0962-8452
Volume:289
Issue No.:1973
Pages:
D.O.I.:10.1098/rspb.2022.0251
Web:https://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.0251
Abstract:© 2022 The Author(s).Although climate-driven phenological shifts have been documented for many taxa across the globe, we still lack knowledge of the consequences they have on populations. Here, we used a comprehensive database comprising 553 populations of 51 species of north-western Mediterranean butterflies to investigate the relationship between phenology and population trends in a 26-year period. Phenological trends and sensitivity to climate, along with various species traits, were used to predict abundance trends. Key ecological traits accounted for a general decline of more than half of the species, most of which, surprisingly, did not change their phenology under a climate warming scenario. However, this was related to the regional cooling in a short temporal window that includes late winter and early spring, during which most species concentrate their development. Finally, we demonstrate that phenological sensitivity - but not phenological trends - predicted population trends, and argue that species that best adjust their phenology to inter-annual climate variability are more likely to maintain a synchronization with trophic resources, thereby mitigating possible negative effects of climate change. Our results reflect the importance of assessing not only species' trends over time but also species' abilities to respond to a changing climate based on their sensitivity to temperature.

Related staff

  • Pau Colom Montojo
  • Anna Traveset Vilagines
  • Related departments

  • Oceanography and Global Change
  • Related research groups

  • Global Change Research